The numbers
The BA.3.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in South Africa in November 2024 and has since raised alarms worldwide. As of March 12, 2026, BA.3.2 has been detected in 29 U.S. states and Puerto Rico, with significant findings from various surveillance methods, including nasal swabs from six U.S. travelers and 260 wastewater samples.
Laboratory studies indicate that BA.3.2 possesses approximately 70 to 75 mutations in its spike protein, which may allow it to evade antibodies and potentially reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines. This variant has been reported by at least 23 countries as of February 11, 2026, highlighting its rapid spread across different regions.
The prevalence of BA.3.2 detections among 5,238 sequences collected between December 1, 2025, and March 12, 2026, stands at 0.55%. This figure suggests that while BA.3.2 is not yet the dominant strain, its presence is notable. In several European countries, BA.3.2 has cocirculated with various JN.1 descendant lineages, with prevalence rates ranging from 10% to 40%.
The first identification of BA.3.2 in the United States occurred on June 27, 2025, through the Traveler-Based Genomic Surveillance program, which aims to monitor emerging variants. Researchers emphasize the importance of tracking the spread of BA.3.2, stating, “Monitoring the spread of BA.3.2 provides valuable information about the potential for this new SARS-CoV-2 lineage to evade immunity from a previous infection or vaccination.”
Phylogenetic analyses have revealed the emergence of two sublineages of BA.3.2: BA.3.2.1 and BA.3.2.2. The public health impact of COVID-19 remains significant, with estimates suggesting between 390,000 and 550,000 hospitalizations and 45,000 to 64,000 deaths during the 2024-2025 respiratory virus season. These figures underscore the ongoing threat posed by COVID-19 and its variants.
Wastewater surveillance has proven to be an effective early warning system for detecting BA.3.2, allowing health officials to respond more rapidly to potential outbreaks. However, researchers caution that the geographic spread of BA.3.2 may be underestimated due to limited genomic detection capabilities in many countries. They note, “Because many countries have limited genomic detection and surveillance capacities, these detections likely underrepresent the actual geographic extent of spread.”
As the situation evolves, continued genomic surveillance is essential to track the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assess its potential impact on public health. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full implications of BA.3.2 on human health outcomes, leaving health officials and researchers vigilant in their monitoring efforts.
