The Kentucky Derby 2026 will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky, and is set to go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET. Jody Demling, an expert in horse racing, is fading the morning-line favorite Renegade, who stands at 4-1 odds, citing historical trends and post position challenges.
Further Ado and Commandment are both listed at 6-1 odds, while Chief Wallabee follows at 8-1. Three horses—Intrepido, Six Speed, and Great White—are tied as longshots at 50-1. The favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018.
Demling stated, “Renegade has history, in multiple aspects, working against him for Saturday’s race.” He emphasized that Renegade’s odds reflect a challenging landscape for favorites. The Puma scratched from the race, leaving 19 horses in contention.
Danon Bourbon comes into the race with a strong performance, winning the Fukuryu Stakes by 10 lengths. He aims to become the first horse based out of Japan to win the Kentucky Derby. Demling noted that “of the two Japanese horses, Danon Bourbon has more speed than Wonder Dean,” which influenced his rankings.
Todd Pletcher trains Renegade. His jockey, Irad Ortiz, has over 4,000 career wins but remains winless in nine previous Derby rides. This statistic raises questions about Ortiz’s ability to secure a victory this time around.
Demling has a proven track record; he has successfully predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He is sharing his projected leaderboard for the Kentucky Derby over at SportsLine.
Observers are keenly watching how these dynamics play out on race day. The competition promises to be intense as various factors influence each horse’s chances.
