The central question today is: why is the market up? The answer lies in a combination of technical factors and expert insights suggesting a relief rally is underway.
The S&P 500 has been down 6% in 2026 and is currently trading at its lowest level in 232 days. However, today, E mini S&P 500 contracts are up about 0.8%, indicating a potential turnaround.
Experts like Adam Kobeissi have noted that a relief rally is necessary due to severely oversold technicals and anticipated intervention by the Trump Administration. This sentiment is echoed by Jay Woods, who points out that previous market downturns, except for the bear market of 2022, have provided great entry points for traders.
Additionally, the daily Relative Strength Index of the S&P 500 is around 29, suggesting that the market is oversold. Historically, in 20 out of the last 28 instances where the S&P 500 broke below the 200-day moving average, it managed to climb back above that level within 10 trading days.
Currently, the S&P 500 is expected to find support at around 6,200, with ten sectors showing a ‘bullish bias.’ This bullish sentiment is further supported by the fact that stocks have materially cheapened, and from a technical perspective, the market is close to support.
In terms of specific stocks, United Therapeutics has seen a significant increase of 12.53%, while Sysco has experienced a decline of 15.28%. The Dow Jones gained 900 points today, and the Nasdaq saw a 3% spike, indicating a broad-based rally.
Mark Newton has also highlighted that momentum is nearing oversold levels on daily charts, reinforcing the idea that the market may be poised for a rebound.
Looking ahead, it is reasonable to anticipate that the current bullish conditions will persist into July, as noted by Walter Murphy. However, details remain unconfirmed regarding the sustainability of this rally amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran war and rising oil prices, which have previously pressured the market.
