The numbers
There is a 62 percent chance of El Niño forming this summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This climatic phenomenon can lead to increased global temperatures and more extreme weather events, such as flooding. Typically, an El Niño event results in a temporary increase of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius in the global mean temperature.
The term “super El Niño” is informally used to describe particularly strong El Niño events, although it is not an official scientific classification. For El Niño conditions to develop, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean must warm by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. A super El Niño is specifically characterized by sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.
The last El Niño occurred from May 2023 through March 2024, contributing to record-breaking heat across the globe. As the equatorial Pacific is expected to transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño over the summer, forecasters are paying close attention to the potential for this year’s El Niño to intensify into a rare super El Niño. AccuWeather has estimated a 15 percent chance of this happening.
If a super El Niño forms, it could lead to warmer, drier conditions in the northern United States and wetter, cooler conditions in the southern regions. Meteorologists warn that a strong El Niño could result in additional global heat records, further exacerbating the already precarious state of the planet’s climate.
The World Meteorological Organization recently stated that the planet’s climate is now “more out of balance than at any time in observed history.” This alarming assessment underscores the urgency of understanding and preparing for the potential impacts of a super El Niño.
Columbia University scientists have noted that it takes time to recharge the “battery” of heat in the East Pacific, but they suggest that human-made warming may be decreasing the time required for this process. Ben Noll, a meteorologist, indicated that “a significant westerly wind burst is possible from this pattern,” which could further influence the development of El Niño conditions.
Historically, years that have seen similar patterns have often resulted in very strong El Niño events. Chad Merrill, another meteorologist, remarked, “Both of those years did become very strong El Niño years, super El Niño events.” However, the potential strength of the upcoming El Niño remains very uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed.
